Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
